About Us:
We believe that the best statistics are those that are easy for the normal fan to understand.
Where Math Meets the Mad Scramble of Football.
We love football. We also love math. And while those two things don't usually sit next to each other on the couch, we realized they should. Our mission is simple: to transform raw NFL data into clear, statistically-backed probabilities you can actually use. We don't just guess; we simulate. A lot.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Simulation Logic
A breakdown of the mathematical engine.
Data Integrity
The results are derived from proven mathematical simulations using actual NFL performance metrics and absolute data.
Volume Simulation
The engine executes 10,000 separate simulations in an instant. By aggregating thousands of game scripts, we eliminate statistical noise and determine the most probable average outcome.
Drive-by-Drive Logic
We do not simulate play-by-play (e.g., 1st & 10). Instead, we calculate the expected Total Drives (e.g., 22) and simulate the result of each possession sequentially.
Outcome Probability
For every drive, the engine weighs Offense Efficiency vs. Defense Rank, plus a "Volatility" factor for randomness.
Secondary Events
If a drive results in a Field Goal or Turnover, a secondary roll occurs. This determines if the FG was missed or if the turnover resulted in a defensive touchdown.
Injury Limitations
Specific player injuries (e.g., "Star QB is out") are not automatically calculated. The engine uses season-long team averages.
Tip: If a key player is missing, manually lower your expectations for that team's score.All NFL data metrics used in our simulations are refreshed every Tuesday morning at 6am (EST). Simulations are re-run every hour after the game odds have been refreshed. Injury data is typically refreshed through out the day, every 6 hours.
Injury Limitations
Specific player injuries (e.g., "Star QB is out") are not automatically calculated. The engine uses season-long team averages.
Tip: If a key player is missing, adjust your expectations for that team's score.Contact Us:
Disclaimer:
The website NFLSimulations.com is an independent source of original content, including analysis and simulation models, created by its owner.
We wish to make it clear that this website and its content are not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or in any way officially connected with the National Football League (NFL), any of its teams, subsidiaries, or affiliates.
The use of any NFL-related content, including team names, logos, or marks, is for descriptive and informational purposes only. The views and predictions expressed on this site are solely those of NFLSimulations.com and do not reflect the official views or positions of the NFL.
Trust & Responsible Play:
NFL Simulations provides data-driven analysis and simulations for informational and entertainment purposes. We do not guarantee outcomes. Please gamble responsibly and only wager what you can afford to lose. Must be of legal age to participate.
